Zach Smith and his wife have always wanted kids. They just bought their first house in suburban Pennsylvania, and at 34, he says the plan is to start a family within the year. But even with two advanced degrees, solid jobs, and a stable financial situation, Zach isn’t sure that now is the time to have children.
The Smiths haven’t abandoned their plans–but they’ve postponed house repairs, signed up for a Costco membership, and for the first time in his life, Zach says, he set aside emergency cash at home. “We’re just in uncharted territory,” he says. “It’s not just affording a kid now, it’s the long-term stability that feels so much more fragile.”
Smith isn’t alone. U.S. birth rates, in steady decline since the Great Recession, fell to a more than 40-year low in 2023. The trend has caught the attention of President Donald Trump, a growing chorus of pronatalists, and economists alike.
In response, Trump has floated policies like a $5,000 “baby bonus” to incentivize family formation. But experts warn that such one-time payments are unlikely to counteract the broader economic pressures–rising costs, proposed cuts to safety net programs like Medicaid, and Trump-era tariffs–that are fueling economic uncertainty.
“It’s never good to be hit with the triumvirate,” says Smith, ticking off what’s weighing on their plans to grow their family: “A massive tax increase in the form of tariffs, a tanking stock market, and the threat of layoffs.”
Declining birth rates are not just a political talking point; they represent a real economic threat. As fewer Americans have children, the country risks a future with too few workers, slower growth, and mounting strain on programs like Social Security and Medicare. By 2030, Americans aged 65 and older will make up over 20% of the population. An aging population tends to lower per capita GDP–as older workers are less likely to work–and reduce overall consumer spending.
That demographic shift has broad implications, not just for the future but understanding our current economic moment. Some economists suggest that birth rates should be viewed as an economic indicator in their own right.
A study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that conception rates declined several quarters before recessions–seen in 1990, 2001, and the Great Recession–suggesting that fertility rates are a predictor of future economic trends.
But not all of the decline is driven by economic anxiety, it also reflects social progress and changing priorities: the teen birth rate has seen a significant decline, with a 68% decrease since 2007.
“The focus on the declining fertility rates really misses this point about unintended births,” says Buckles, professor of economics at the University of Notre Dame.
The real crisis may not be too few births, but too little support for the people trying to have children in a changing economy, says Buckles. “We’ve just made it really hard for people to have families.”
Bianca, another 34-year-old, knows exactly how hard it can be to raise a child in today’s economy. As a single mother in Georgia she spends much of her paycheck on rent, daycare, and essentials that just keep getting more expensive. She’s worried about the future–not just for herself, but for her three-year-old son. Between rising costs, cuts to government assistance, and broader economic instability, she says many in her community–including herself–are stopping at one child.
Many Americans want kids but feel they can’t afford them. After all, parents can expect to spend anywhere between $13,000 and $50,000 in just the first year of raising a child–a financial burden that many are reluctant to take on.
That burden may grow as tariffs on foreign imports remain elevated–some are calling it a “baby tax.” According to the CEO of Babylist, a leading baby registry company, 97% of strollers and 87% of car seats are made in China. Although a recent U.S.-China agreement reduced the maximum tariffs from 145% to 30% for 90 days, prices for baby goods–including formula, diapers, and clothing–remain high. These costs come at a time when many families are already struggling with rising rents and medical expenses, making it more difficult to justify having a child.
In times of economic uncertainty, people often delay big purchases–including, says economist Gordal Dahl, “the most durable good you’ll ever have”: children. Americans may not forgo parenthood entirely, but many delay, leading to smaller families like Bianca’s.
During Trump’s first term, Dahl, a professor at UC San Diego, described a “Trump baby bust,” in which researchers saw fertility dip following the Republican’s election, especially along partisan lines. Now, Trump hopes to be “the fertilization president,” appealing to a burgeoning pronatalist movement. Among them is Lyman Stone, Director of the Pronatalism Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies.
“Children are our future,” Stone says. “We should be deeply invested in helping families have the children they want.”
Trump has proposed a $5,000 baby bonus, menstrual education, and Fulbright fellowships for applicants who are married or have children. But even those most concerned about falling birth rates say that these solutions feel off-base.
Catherine Ruth Pakaluk, a professor of economics at Catholic University, has eight children and attended Natal Con, a gathering of pronatalists this spring. Even the most promising proposal–a cash bonus–won’t change how many kids parents plan to have. Others noted that the bonus will barely make a dent in their parenting costs.
“$5,000 is not going to cover 18 years,” says single mother Bianca. “It’s not going to cover one year.”
For Pakaluk, the first course of action in addressing the birth rate would be canceling tariffs on imported goods immediately. Others, like Stone, suggest rolling back what he calls “marriage penalties” (tax code provisions that disadvantage dual-income couples) and deregulating the childcare industry. Parent advocacy groups like ParentsTogether and MomsRising are pushing for the return of the Child Tax Credit, paid parental leave, and protection of programs like Medicaid.
For now, people like Zach and Bianca are left to do the math on their own–deciding whether and when to have children in a country where the economic future feels uncertain. The birth rate may be falling, but the desire to build families hasn’t disappeared. What’s missing, some say, is a system to support them if they try.
