Inflation is still top of mind for many voters heading into the presidential election, despite the rate of price acceleration slowing considerably from its pandemic-era extremes. The consumer price index report, set to release Wednesday morning, will provide insight into where consumers felt the tightest squeeze on their wallets in April. Here are five things to look out for in tomorrow’s report.
1. Disinflation could resume
It’s possible disinflation – or a slowdown of price increases – could resume in the April report after the past couple of months reflected faster price hikes. Economists are predicting that the CPI rose 3.4% in April, a slight decrease from 3.5% in March. Core inflation, a measure that excludes changes in more volatile goods like fuel and food, is expected to rise 3.6%. This would be the lowest yearly core CPI in the past three years, an indication of moderating prices.
2. Housing inflation
Even with mortgage rates hovering around 7%, home prices are continuing to rise across the nation thanks to low inventory creating pent up demand. Economists expect rising rents to slow, but not as quickly as they forecasted at the beginning of the year.
Housing inflation is something the Federal Reserve is keeping an eye on, as its 5.7% year-over-year growth reported for March is driving up total inflation, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said at an event with reporters last month.
“I consistently emphasize this housing part. That’s the one that has not behaved the way we thought it would,” Goolsbee said. “Mechanically, we thought we understood how that number gets added up. And the market rent inflation is well down. But it hasn’t flowed through into the official measures.”
If housing inflation does not slow, Goolsbee said the Fed is “going to have a hard time” getting to its 2% inflation goal.
3. All eyes on the Fed
Investors seeking interest rate cuts this year are also hoping inflation inches closer to 2% in Wednesday’s report. But Goolsbee pointed out that many different items play into the overall inflation number.
“It is important to remember that it doesn’t have to be that housing inflation gets back to 2% and services back to 2%,” he said. “That’s not what it was before.”
Deflation factors into the year-over-year number as well. In the March report, prices for fuel oil, utility gas service, used cars and new cars went down.
Last month’s CPI report lessened the likelihood of rate cuts coming this year, and Wednesday’s report could help determine the direction the Fed takes with rates.
4. Fast food prices
California raised its minimum wage by 25% last month, and fast food restaurants have passed on the higher labor costs through higher prices on their menus. This could translate to higher food inflation in the April report.
5. Used cars
For three years, auto prices helped drive inflation up. This year, we’re finally seeing them come back down. New car prices decreased 0.1% year-over-year in the most recent report.
The fall in used car prices has been more dramatic. They have fluctuated a bit throughout the year, but have ultimately driven down the total inflation number with a 2.2% year-over-year decline reported in March. Economists forecast that used car deflation will continue through the summer.
